AWARD SZN: THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE
Let's be real, NBA award debates are glorified shouting matches where fans cherry-pick whatever stats support their guy. But what if we actually let all the numbers speak? Not just the highlight-reel stats, but the deep cuts that reveal who's truly moving the needle. Let's settle these award races once and for all.
MVP: Jokić vs. SGA
The Serbian Triple-Double Machine vs. Oklahoma's Smooth Assassin
WHY JOKIĆ GETS THE EDGE
Look, SGA is having a dream season. The Thunder have shocked everyone with 64 wins, and he's the primary reason. But the MVP isn't "Most Valuable Player on the Best Team", it's about individual excellence, and Jokić is operating in another dimension:
Jokić is posting a 32.2 PER (highest since Giannis in 2021)
His 13.27 Box Plus-Minus would be the highest EVER.
He creates 26.4 potential points via assists PER GAME (SGA: 16.8)
When Jokić sits, Denver's offensive rating plummets by 9.7 points—no other star has as dramatic an impact
Remember when a triple-double was special? Jokić is AVERAGING one (30.0/12.8/10.2) on 57.8% shooting. That's absurd.
The tracking data makes Jokić's case even stronger. He touches the ball 105.5 times per game, creating 0.284 points per touch the highest mark for any high-usage player in the tracking era. His offensive load is unprecedented for a center, with a usage-adjusted efficiency that outpaces even peak Curry seasons.
SGA'S CASE IS STILL STRONG
SGA's season isn't just impressive—it's historic for a guard:
His 32.6 PPG on 63.7% true shooting is a combination only matched by prime Jordan and Curry
The Thunder are have a +6.6 Offensive Rating with Shai on the floor.
His 8.7 Estimated PIPM leads all guards by a mile
Oklahoma City went from lottery to 64 wins with essentially the same core
Where SGA truly separates himself is in clutch performance. In the last five minutes of games within 5 points, he's shooting 41.7% while averaging 4.8 clutch points per game. His clutch net rating of +15.8 edges Jokić's +15.4.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
The MVP race feels like a throwback to 1990 when Magic Johnson's Lakers won 63 games but Charles Barkley's individual brilliance for the 53-win Sixers nearly stole the trophy. Magic won because voters historically lean toward the best-player-best-team formula, but advanced metrics later suggested Barkley actually created more value.
This race is closer than the advanced stats suggest. If you value team success heavily, SGA has a legitimate claim. But Jokić's stranglehold on virtually every advanced metric makes him the analytical choice.
DPOY: Mobley vs. Green
Next-Gen Defensive Unicorn vs. The Defensive Savant
MOBLEY: A NEW DEFENSIVE PROTOTYPE
Evan Mobley isn't just good at defense—he's redefining what centers can do in space:
Opponents shoot 7.8% worse when Mobley is the primary defender
He's held opponents to 58.5% at the rim (best among high-volume defenders)
Cleveland's defensive rating with Mobley: 108.5 (would lead NBA by 2.2 points)
He contests 10.5 shots per game while only committing 2.0 fouls
The eye test confirms what the numbers suggest: Mobley can legitimately guard 1-5 while anchoring the league's most suffocating defense.
Where Mobley truly excels is defensive versatility. According to Second Spectrum tracking data, he's spent at least 15% of his defensive possessions guarding each position from 1-5. His switch success rate of 78.4% ranks first among all frontcourt players with at least 150 switches. In today's pick-and-roll heavy NBA, that's defensive gold.
GREEN: THE DEFENSIVE QUARTERBACK
At 35, Draymond remains basketball's defensive genius:
Warriors' defensive rating jumped from 21st to 7th when he returned
His defensive box plus/minus of 2.9 (2nd)
Opponents' eFG% drops 5.3% when Green is their primary defender
Has a combined Blocks + Steals per game of 2.4 (2nd).
The most impressive Green stat? When he's the primary help defender on drives, opponents shoot just 40.1% at the rim—a full 9% below league average. He might be the best help defender of all time, with a basketball IQ that's basically basketball telepathy at this point.
THE X-FACTOR: FREQUENCY
Green's missed 15 games this season due to suspension. While that might not officially disqualify him, it matters in a close race. Meanwhile, Mobley has logged 2,147 defensive possessions as the primary rim protector (2nd most in NBA) while being trusted to switch onto guards another 426 times (most among centers).
Green's defensive impact transcends traditional stats—he's basically a player-coach on that end. But this isn't a lifetime achievement award, and Mobley's statistical dominance on the league's best defense gives him the edge.
ROY: Castle vs. Risacher
The Complete Package vs. The European Prospect
CASTLE: ELITE TWO-WAY IMPACT Castle isn't just good at basketball—he's elite in ways rookies rarely are:
Offensive versatility with elite finishing (88th percentile) and playmaking (86th)
His shot creation (84th percentile) despite facing tough defenders (77th percentile)
Near-perfect isolation defense (98th percentile) with elite matchup difficulty (99th)
Superior ball screen navigation (79th) and off-ball chasing (95th) are veteran-level skills
Drawing fouls at a 91st percentile clip shows advanced feel for manipulating defenders
Castle's offensive responsibilities are staggering for a rookie. His true usage (86th percentile) and on-ball action share (78th) show a player trusted to run an NBA offense immediately. What's most impressive is how he's created his own advantages despite facing tougher defensive matchups than his peers.
The defensive metrics tell an even clearer story. Castle is already being tasked with guarding elite opponents and excelling across nearly every defensive category. His off-ball awareness and screen navigation are particularly rare finds in a rookie.
RISACHER: SPECIALIZED CONTRIBUTOR Risacher shows promise as a complementary piece:
Solid shot quality (63rd percentile) shows he's getting good looks
Above-average offensive rebounding (79th) demonstrates good instincts
Superior positional versatility (71st vs Castle's 39th) provides defensive flexibility
Better help defense (55th vs Castle's 13th) highlights good team defensive IQ
Good transition scoring (82nd percentile) shows open-court athleticism
Risacher's profile reveals a player who excels within structure. His shot quality advantage over Castle (63rd vs 37th) suggests he's benefiting from better setups and less defensive pressure. His three-point shooting (34th percentile) offers a skill Castle is still developing (10th).
Where Risacher truly stands out is defensive versatility. His ability to guard multiple positions (71st percentile) and provide help defense (55th) speaks to a high basketball IQ. His shot-blocking (57th vs Castle's 31st) adds another dimension to his defensive value.
SKILLSET COMPARISON The BBall Index metrics reveal a stark difference in role and responsibility:
Castle dominates in 16 of 32 measured skills; Risacher leads in just 4
Castle is creating offense; Risacher is finishing plays
Castle faces tougher defensive assignments while still outperforming defensively
Risacher's efficiency comes with significantly lower creation burden
Context matters—Castle's shooting efficiency suffers because he's taking tougher shots against better defenders with higher usage. When a rookie is trusted with primary creation duties while still providing elite defense, that's exceptional value.
Risacher has the makings of a valuable complementary player, but Castle is already showing he can be a franchise cornerstone. The rookie race isn't close when you look beyond basic counting stats.
6MOY: Pritchard vs. Beasley
Boston's Spark Plug vs. Detroit's Volume Shooter
PRITCHARD: EFFICIENCY PERSONIFIED
Coming off Boston's bench, Pritchard has been nothing short of nuclear:
63.2% true shooting (higher than Steph Curry this season)
1.27 points per possession as pick-and-roll handler (94th percentile)
Celtics outscore opponents by 5.6 points per 100 when he plays
41.1% from three on 4.7 attempts per game
The advanced metrics are screaming his name: 17.3 PER, 3.3 BPM, and 0.181 WS/48 all lead qualified bench players.
What makes Pritchard's case even stronger is his shot quality vs. shot making differential. According to tracking data, his "expected eFG%" based on shot location and defender distance is 51.2%, but his actual eFG% is 57.8%. That +6.6% differential ranks 2nd among all guards with 500+ FGA, indicating elite shot-making ability rather than just scheme-generated open looks.
BEASLEY: BUCKET-GETTER
Beasley deserves credit for his role as Detroit's offensive life raft:
16.3 PPG (highest among qualified bench players)
42.9% from deep on 9.3 attempts (elite volume and efficiency)
1.17 PPP on catch-and-shoot (91st percentile)
Has scored 20+ points off the bench 15 times
Beasley's shooting gravity provides value beyond his individual numbers. When he's on the floor, Detroit's other players see a 3.2% increase in open shot frequency, highlighting how his reputation affects defensive attention.
BENCH IMPACT BEYOND THE BOX SCORE
The Sixth Man Award has traditionally valued scoring above all else (the last five winners averaged 19.7 PPG), but Pritchard's case transcends buckets. Boston's bench lineup featuring Pritchard has a net rating of +12.3, compared to Detroit's Beasley-led bench units at -3.7.
Beasley has been a bright spot for the struggling Pistons, providing consistent scoring off the bench. However, the team’s overall performance has limited his impact on winning.
While both players have similar scoring averages, Pritchard’s superior shooting efficiency, all-around contributions, and significant role in the Celtics’ success provide him with a stronger case for the Sixth Man of the Year award.
THE FINAL WORD
Award season always brings debate, but the numbers paint a pretty clear picture:
MVP: Jokić's statistical dominance edges SGA's team success
DPOY: Mobley's two-way versatility trumps Green's veteran savvy
ROY: Castle's all-around game outshines Starr's scoring prowess
6MOY: Pritchard's efficiency in a winning environment beats Beasley's volume
Remember: gut feelings make for great sports talk, but when the numbers speak this clearly, it's hard to argue.